How to predict the future so you can ramp your investments up or down
You don't need to be Nostradamus to look into this crystal ball.
As summer approaches, businesses are gearing up for the inevitable shifts in consumer behavior that come with the change in seasons. Whether you're in retail, hospitality, or even the SaaS space, understanding these patterns can be crucial for optimizing your ad spend.
One of our clients had a painfully low sales month in April - May. Literal panic.
Thing is, looking back at Google Trends historicals, these months have ALWAYS been some of the lowest. Additionally, these months in 2024 were lower than 2023, helping to contextualize in the broader perspective what we were experiencing in channel.
The best part, we knew that June would bounce back hard - giving us confidence that things we’re going to turn around.
And they have.
This is especially powerful when you need to time your ad spend with big holiday events, like Black Friday.
Here's how you can leverage Google Trends to make data-driven decisions and maximize your marketing ROI.
Use Google Trends
Google Trends is a powerful tool that tracks the popularity of search terms over time. By analyzing these trends, you can predict consumer behavior, identify peak seasons for your products or services, and make informed decisions about your ad spend. This data can give you the confidence to strike when the iron is hot and pull back when demand is low.
Seasonal Insights for Different Product Categories
Let's explore how Google Trends can be applied across various industries to optimize your ad campaigns.
Business SaaS
While SaaS products may not seem seasonal at first glance, Google Trends can reveal surprising patterns. For instance, many businesses look to adopt new software solutions at the start of the fiscal year or post-holiday season when budgets are reset. Searches for terms like "project management software" or "CRM tools" tend to spike during these periods.
Ad Spend Tip: Increase your ad budget in January and early Q2 when businesses are more likely to invest in new SaaS solutions.
Summer Seasonal Products
Summer brings a surge in searches for products like air conditioners, swimwear, and outdoor furniture. For example, searches for "outdoor furniture" start to climb in March and peak in May-June.
Ad Spend Tip: Begin ramping up your ad spend in late April to capture early interest, and peak your spending in June to align with the highest search volumes.
Holiday Travel and Hospitality
Travel and hospitality industries see a predictable rise in interest during holiday seasons. Terms like "summer vacation packages" or "beach resorts" see significant upticks starting in March, peaking in June and July.
Ad Spend Tip: Start your ad campaigns in March to catch early planners and maintain a high budget through July. Consider a smaller second wave in October for those planning winter getaways.
Back-to-School Supplies
The back-to-school season is a major opportunity for retailers. Searches for "school supplies" and "backpacks" begin to rise in July and peak in August.
Ad Spend Tip: Initiate your ad campaigns in early July and intensify your efforts throughout August to capture last-minute shoppers.
Making Data-Driven Decisions
By analyzing historical data on Google Trends, you can predict when interest in your products or services will rise or fall. This allows you to allocate your ad spend more effectively, ensuring you're investing when potential customers are most likely to convert.
Personally, I find it so beautiful to see these clear patterns.
Steps
Identify keywords: start by identifying the key search terms related to your business.
Analyze trends: use Google Trends to track these keywords over time and identify peak seasons.
Plan your budget: align your ad spend with the periods of highest interest to maximize ROI.
Monitor continuously: keep an eye on ongoing trends to adjust your strategies in real-time.
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